Should I stay or should I go?

Now comes the big question for me: should I stay in the political market, or should I cash out and reap my sweet reward? McCain futures were currently selling at 51.5-52, which is their lifetime high. It's also pretty high considering that McCain and Obama do not split this market 50-50 (their prices do not add up to 100) -- a small discount exists for unlikely possibilities, like Hillary somehow getting the nomination, or McCain dying. If I cash out now, closing my positions and having a check mailed to me, I win; I have made about 60% of my original investment, which is damned good considering the short time I've been involved in the market. If McCain is selling at an even 50.0, with each share worth $5, I would gross $4.95 per share, because the trading fee is only $0.05. Good returns by any measure.


Another option is to try to make marginal gains from short-term fluctuations in price between McCain and Obama. This is an inherently dangerous strategy, but it has its merits. If this price changes by as little as 0.6 (or $0.06) I stand to make a small gain. But there is a whole lot of information that I cannot know that is being taken into consideration by this market; by my reasoning, using a short-trading strategy, I stand to lose as much if not more than I do to gain.


There is also the fact that the debates are fast approaching, and I think the Republicans are going to get trounced, to put it bluntly. Obama is a far more elegant speaker than McCain, policy questions aside, and I think that despite Palin's energy her lack of experience is really going to hurt her in the VP debate. Which again, is telling me that I should sell McCain now, possibly even more than I have, in the expectation that the price will drop by a few points during the debates. This strategy is very attractive, to me, but the reality is that it is far more short-term and far less certain than the strategy I have adopted thus far. Which fills me with a nervous excitement.